Behind the diplomatic theatre, Russias crumbling economy, military losses and silenced dissent reveal the true cost of Putins war, writesPatrick Drennan.

FACING STAGNATION on the battlefield and economic calamity at home, Russian PresidentVladimir Putindesperately needed a victory to present to the Russian people.

On 15 August, Putinmet withAmerican PresidentDonald Trumpat Alaskas Elmendorf-Richardson air base. He laid out terms to end the war he started in Ukraine, without publicly stipulating the conditions. In a later joint press announcement,Putintalked extensivelyabout Russias historical ties to America and mentioned Ukraines fundamental threats to our security. President Trump responded by saying that progress was being made.

The diplomatic victory for Putin was the meeting with President Trump as an equal after three and a half years of international isolation. Oddly, in an interview withFox Newsimmediately afterwards, President Trump described Russia as the second superpower in the world, behind America.

The facts do not support that. Russiaseconomy is collapsing. Ordinary Russians are struggling and quietly question Putins leadership.

Alliances fracture and authoritarians collide, as with Trump, Putin and Netanyahu push the world into an unmarked minefield. DaveDonovan comments.

Russia's grain harvest hasplungedby 12.7 million tonnesand it is not all due to drought. TheRussian Grain Unioncomplains that Kremlin policies such as strict state price regulation and export duties have made the situation worse.

Russian consumers struggle with theincreased pricesof butter, milk, potatoes, fruit and chicken. Domesticpetrol priceshave risen by 18% over the last year. The demand for Russian cars and trucks is falling, andproduction is foundering.

Russias two largest lenders,SberbankandVTB, reported a sharp increase in delinquencies on mortgage and unsecured consumer loans in thefirst quarter of 2025. FromOctober 2024 to April 2025, the total volume of credit card delinquencies in Russia increased by almost 70% to 110 billion roubles (AU$2.1 billion).

Thelatest reliable statisticsshow that Russia has had a million war casualties, with at least 104,000 dying in combat. Russia has major industry and militarymanpower shortages.

Ukraine also contributes to Russias increasing military and economic decline by striking its industrial-military complex. For example, on 14 August, Ukrainian dronessuccessfully struck(for the third time) theVolgograd Oil Refinery1,337kilometres from Ukraines borders. The refinery produces 15 million tons of oil annually,

On the battlefield,Russia has conqueredabout 5,000 square kilometres of land in Ukraine since January 2024 a paltry gain of less than 1% of Ukrainian territory.

Military commanders who criticise the Kremlins tactics vanish. On 1 August 2025, Yuri Burakov, commander of the 2nd battalion of the 95th regiment,disappearedfollowing a meeting with his superior.

As Ukraine reels from chemical attacks, torture and child abductions, Putin deepens the horror by recruiting foreign forces to join his bloody crusade.

If Putin believes any of them to be disloyal, such asYevgeny Prigozhin, or simply becomes too popular like Major-GeneralIvan Popov, they are arrested or die in mysterious circumstances.

The Russian industrial oligarchs are also under extreme pressure.On 4 July 2025, Russian oligarchKonstantin Strukov, worth about AU$2.9 billion, was arrested while attempting to flee the country aboard his private jet.TVP Worldreported that his fortune, based on gold mining, will be confiscated.

On the same day,Andrei Badalov, the vice-president ofRussias national oil pipeline,Transneft, died afterallegedlyfalling out of a window.

On 26 March,Vadim Moshkovich, worth about $2.7 billion, was arrested and charged with fraud. He was the majority owner of Russias largest agricultural company,Rusagro. According to theOdessa Journal,Putins inner circle are already taking over aspects of the business.

Putins inner circle comprise theSiloviki(literally, power people) conservative, long-time associates of Putin, many of whom haveFSBorKGBsecret service backgrounds. They include Presidential AideNikolai Patrushev, loyal generals likeValery Gerasimovand Chechen headRamzan Kadyrov. All report directly to Putin and dutifully follow his orders.

However, even the Siloviki have doubts. On 10 August,The New York Timesreported that Kremlin Deputy Chief of StaffDmitry Kozakwas sidelined after he advised Putin to immediately stop fighting in Ukraine and seek peace.

Amid calls for peace and an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is stepping up his offensive campaign and expanding his military might.

On 18 August, President Trump hosted a meeting in the White House with Ukrainian PresidentVolodymyr Zelenskyyandother European leaders. Zelenskyy rightly refused to hand over Ukrainian territory that Russia had not conquered. President Trumpsaidhe wanted Zelenskyy to meet with Putin to discuss peace without a ceasefire or concrete American security guarantees. President Trump telephoned Putinduring and after the meeting, in which the Kremlin discussed raising the level of representatives, without mentioning Zelenskyy.

Putin is cornered.Hisusual reactionsin such circumstances are to stall for time with absurd treaty preconditions and lashing out with more intensive bombings. He has no intention of giving up conquered land, nor meeting with President Zelenskyy, as he has repeatedly told the Russian people that Zelenskyy isillegitimate. He is gaslighting and has not said anything since these historic meetings that indicates that he has altered his maximalist goals.

Putin believes he can sustain the Ukraine war foranother two yearsby covertly selling oil toChinaandIndia(notwithstandingdeferredAmerican tariffs), importing military materiel from China, and recruiting thousands ofmercenariesfrom North Korea and other nations.

The historical August events elevated Putins status at home, made no concessions, saw no new sanctions, limited calls for a ceasefire and inferred that Ukraine, not Russia, is blocking peace. Diplomatic victories that do little for Russians who cannot feed their families and whose relatives are dying on the battlefield.

Patrick Drennanis a journalist based in New Zealand, with a degree in American history and economics.

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