Goodwill gestures are meant to make the recipient trust whoever does them with the expectation that theyll then be reciprocated for improving their relations.
Putinofferedin late September to extend the New START, which is the last arms control pact between Russia and the US, for another year following its expiry in early February. He thenreaffirmedhis proposal in early October,emphasizingthat theres still time to extend this crucial agreement if the US has the political will, which appears to be the case given Trumpsrecent praiseof it as a good idea. Regardless of whatever happens, Putins offer is a goodwill gesture to Trump, which will now be explained.
For background, Putin announced Russias suspension of the New START in February 2023 in response to NATOs involvement in Ukraines drone attacks against his countrys strategic aviation bases several months prior, which was analyzedhereas the right thing to do at the right time. Nearly a year later in January 2024, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov thendeclaredthat talks on this issue wont resume till theUkrainian Conflictends, arguing that doing otherwise would put Russia at a disadvantage.
With that in mind, it was expected at the start of the year thatMutual Interest In Resuming Arms Control Talks Can Speed Up The Ukrainian Peace Process, yet that didnt come to pass with Russian-UStensions escalatingshortly after mid-Augusts Anchorage Summit. Nevertheless, Putin stillpublicly praisedTrump for working towards peace and proposed extending New START for another year, thus representing a change in Russias position as articulated by Lavrov over 18 months earlier.
Goodwill gestures are meant to make the recipient trust whoever does them with the expectation that theyll then be reciprocated for improving their relations. That doesnt always happen though as proven by Russias goodwill gesture of withdrawing from Kiev during spring 2022s peace talks being seen as weakness by Ukraine, the UK, and Poland, the last two of which thenconvinced Ukraineto keep fighting. The possibility thus exists that Trump might perceive Putins latest goodwill gesture in the same way.
Its crucial to mention that Putin reassured his people that Russia can ensure its national security even in the absence of extending New START and that any unilateral moves by the US to further upset the strategic balance between their countries would render this pact null and void. What he probably had in mind was TrumpsGolden Domeinitiative, previously known as theIron Dome, for reviving Reagans Star Wars plan for space-based interceptors and likely secret space-based offensive missiles too.
Taking his trade deals as precedent, he always wants the US to maintain the dominant position in any compromise, so he might either insist on continuing to build the Golden Dome despite this ruining any New START extension or secretly continuing to do so even if he says he wont. If the CIA assesses that Russia might transfer cutting-edge nuclear weapons technology to China and/or North Korea in that case, and that this would in turn jeopardize US national security interests, then he might reconsider.
Putins goodwill gesture to Trump of offering to extend New START is therefore a pivotal moment in their ties since itll allow Russia to learn whether the US is serious about compromising. If Trump doesnt ditch the Golden Dome or dupes Putin about freezing work on it, then even though thenew Burevestnik missilecould still piece through it, Russia might still opt to transfer this tech to its nuclear-armed allies in order to raise the costs to the US of rejecting Russias proposal so that it doesnt reject future ones too.
Andrew Korybko
